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GOLFEN: Is CAFE Boost Really The Answer?
Written by: Bob Golfen   
05/19/2009
Phoenix, AZ
 
On the day that President Obama proposed the nation’s first automotive standards for greenhouse-gas emissions and an accelerated timetable for increased fuel-mileage goals, I read this small item in my local newspaper, The Arizona Republic, under the headline:

“Climate change is a threat, retired military brass say.”

Will new fuel-mileage and emissions standards doom performance cars, such as this Ford Mustang GT? (Photo: Ford) ยป More Photos
It seems that a high-level panel of former generals and admirals said in a report issued Monday that reducing the nation’s dependence on foreign oil and addressing climate change are critical for national security.

So what do we get out of this, that maybe the issues of clean air and gas mileage are somehow bigger than the size of the vehicle in your driveway?

We all love cars that are fast and fun. Big cars, SUVs, sports cars, custom cars, racecar-towing pickup trucks, all the good stuff that make the automotive lifestyle worth living.

Yet when do we reach the point where the price we’re paying gets too high? When gas prices double again? When Middle East turmoil turns off the oil tap? When the air gets too dirty to breathe?

The government’s latest proposal is an attempt to find the center of the debate, to present a compromise between what the feds want, what California and a dozen sympathetic states want, and what the automakers want.

Somewhere in there, they need to figure out what the consumer wants. This is the fundamental problem with the Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards, that while it encourages the automakers to build clean, efficient cars and trucks, it does nothing to get people to buy them.

“A lesson regulators and many in the green community
still haven't learned is that autos are still a major investment made as much with emotion as with common sense,” said John O’Dell, editor of GreenCarAdvisor.com. “It won't matter that the vehicles that result from this national program effort average 50 or 60 miles per gallon if no one wants to buy them.”

CAFE takes an automaker’s car-and-truck average not from those it builds but the mileage average of the cars and trucks that it actually sells to consumers. The new target would be 35.5 mpg average for cars and trucks by 2016.

This does not equate to the end of performance cars or light trucks, but they will have to be balanced by fuel-efficient, low-polluting small cars, hybrids and electric vehicles.

And if the automaker fails to meet the sales-weighted CAFE goal? Well, the automaker would be fined, which probably means they’ll just figure the government fines into the cost of doing business, most likely a less-costly solution than trying to meet the CAFE standards and trying to convince drivers to buy the more-efficient vehicles.

Edmunds.com CEO Jeremy Anwyl questions whether CAFE standards have outlived their usefulness in light of consumer desires.

“Defining what should be built does not create demand,” Anwyl said. “There are tons of great fuel-efficient cars out there today but most consumers aren’t interested, and CAFE doesn’t deal with the demand side at all.

“For some automakers, it would be market suicide to meet CAFE standards. Minimizing our impact on the environment is a great goal, but this isn’t the way to get there.”

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